Prediction of potential deviations in settlement area space patterns based on cellular Automata in Mapanget District, Manado City

Rieneke Lusia Evani Sela; Andy Anton Mangopa Malik; Sonny Tilaar; Nadira Astuti Lestari

doi:10.30822/arteks.v9i1.2655

Penulis

Rieneke Lusia Evani Sela Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sam Ratulangi , Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sam Ratulangi
Andy Anton Mangopa Malik Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sam Ratulangi , Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sam Ratulangi https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7121-9809 (tidak diautentikasi)
Sonny Tilaar Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sam Ratulangi , Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sam Ratulangi
Nadira Astuti Lestari Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sam Ratulangi ,

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30822/arteks.v9i1.2655

Kata Kunci:

Cellular automata, Deviation, Land use change, Land use Sim, Settlement

Abstrak

Kecamatan Mapanget merupakan salah satu bagian administratif dari Kota Manado. Kecamatan Mapanget menjadi salah satu arahan dalam rencana pengembangan kota baru yang berfokus pada perkembangan pusat permukiman baru yang letaknya berada di pinggiran kota. Perubahan penggunaan lahan di Kecamatan Mapanget dapat dianalisis secara spasial dengan memanfaatkan sistem penginderaan jarak jauh. Untuk mengantisipasi dampak negatif yang tidak terkontrol pada daerah pinggiran kota, maka diperlukan sebuah prediksi perkembangan penggunaan lahan permukiman. Oleh karena itu, tujuan penelitian ini adalah memprediksi perkembangan lahan selama 20 tahun, sejak tahun 2022 hingga tahun 2042 dan menganalisis potensi deviasi perkembangan pola ruang permukiman Kota Manado khususnya Kecamatan Mapanget menggunakan analisis spasial berbasis Geography Information System-Cellular Automata (GIS-CA) ddan analisis pembobotan dengan teknik Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Untuk proses simulasi menggunakan software Archmap 10.8, QGIS, dan LanduseSim 2.3.1. Hasil prediksi menunjukkan bahwa akan terjadi perubahan penggunaan lahan bangunan permukiman selama 20
tahun kedepan sebesar 1956,75 Ha atau meningkat 201% yang disebabkan oleh faktor pendorong dengan bobot terbesar yaitu kedekatan dengan permukiman eksisting. Potensi deviasi yang terjadi berdasarkan arahan rencana pola ruang untuk bangunan permukiman yaitu 1106,79 Ha dan potensi
deviasi terbesar yaitu pada Kelurahan Buha.

Unduhan

Data unduhan tidak tersedia.

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